Kashmir Dispute: U.S. Ambassador in Pakistan to U.S. Secretary of State, May 8, 1948
745.45F/5-848 Telegram
The [US] Ambassador in Pakistan (Alling) to the [US] Secretary of State
SECRET - KARACHI May 8,1918-1 a.m.
265. Chamberlin from Hoskot. Information received this morning indicates possibility armed conflict [between] India [and] Pakistan imminent unless present conditions change drastically, quickly. Pakistan has three regular Pakistan Army battalions [in] Kashmir now, one vicinity Uri, one vicinity Poonch, one vicinity Mirpur, all lying well back present fighting but on war scale prepared immediate action even India advances any above three, places should cause serious withdraws Azad forces. Two ack-ack guns on Pakistan side Kohala bridge have instructions [to] fire and have fired at Indian planes attempting [to] bomb [the] bridge. One ack-ack gun on Pakistan side suspension bridge near Palandri which is supply line for Pakistan battalion near Poonch Indian drive northwest from Naushera towards Mirpur would result headwaters Jhelum which feed large irrigation canals western Punjab coming under their control and possible shut off this water. Same true [of] headwaters [of] Chenab[,] which canal controls[,] located in Kashmir southwest Akhnur. Shut off this water could precipitate local action by residents [in the] area[,] which [in] turn bring about invasion [of] Pakistan by India forces. Buridoab canal which has headworks and controls in east Punjab and which has been dry for four weeks causing serious crop damage [in the] eastern part of west Punjab now full water supposedly due agreement between east west Punjab provincial governments. Actually, [the] Indian Army had blocked Ravi flow water into [a] canal [in the] vicinity [of] Basantpur and diverted it to east Punjab. Back-up water so high interfering construction military bridge for military road running from Palbankot to Basantpur thence to Jammu, and only reason water [is] flowing in canal is lower level [to] allow completion [of the] bridge. Upon completion of [the] bridge water will again be blocked leaving thousands [of] acres west [of] Punjab dire straits. Pakistan Army on practical war footing along entire Indo-Pakistan border Bahawalpur State to Domel. 10th Division Lahore with brigade[s] Lahore, Sialkot, Rawali [Rawalpindi?] has complete war plan ready to be put into action. By bringing 7th Division which is mobilized on war footing in Pindi into action sending 3rd Armored Brigade from Rimalpur into positions along border north of Jhelum and robbing 9th Division Peshawar, Pakistan can throw at most corps into notion. Lack [of] supplies and reserves would mean [a] short but bloody engagement with India certain and quick victor. Ammunition ordered from UK report arriving Karachi by sea next couple of days but [the] problem [of] transport to west Punjab [is] difficult. Shipment includes 303, mortar and 25 pounder stuff. Governor General [of] India told Commander-in-Chief [of] Pakistan [in a] recent defense meeting [in] Delhi that India [is] converting 12 C-47's a month at Hindustan aircraft [airfield?] Bangalore with bomb racks and machine guns. This report confirmed by [an] American who saw actual work being performed. [In the] Event [of] hostilities, position British officers [of] both Dominions presents delicate situation. Unquestionably UK order their immediate withdrawal but reliable sources here feel many British officers with Pakistan might refuse [to] obey withdrawal order due firm belief Pakistan's cause and continue their service. Pakistan Defense Council meeting today and tomorrow consider ways and means further combatting this threatened possibility and requesting aid from UK and US not remote if threat materializes or danger of possible Indian aggression increases.
A(2). Rumor that India stated airborne invasion [of] Hyderabad for 5 May current here. Movement cancelled last minute by demand HMG and Sir Walter Monckton, Constitutional Advisor [of] Hyderabad, who had just returned to UK, immediately flew back to India and now further consultation [in] Hyderabad India taking place [in] effort [to] avert Indian armed entry into Hyderabad. Felt that India actual aggression into Hyderabad would be calculated risk and would necessitate withdrawal [of] many Indian troops from internal defense duty. However, if does occur, predict large-scale riots in India and consequent minority suffering which unquestionably break to Pakistan. Necessity for UN Commission presence here immediately most obvious. Developments being closely observed this office and writer has appointment [with] Commander-in-Chief Pakistan Army at termination Defense Council meeting on ninth. Further report be submitted.
Department please pass to War from Hoskot, MA, Pakistan, CLN 46 Crypto War pass to MA London and Delhi. [Hoskot.]
ALLING
From: US Department of State. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1948. Volume V, part 1. Washington DC: Government Printing Office, 1975, 340-341.